Russia: OPEC deal worked, but we won't be joining oil cartel

That may happen even as crude stockpiles in the USA and elsewhere climb over the next few years, the IEA said in its "Oil 2017" report.

"At that time, the share of spare production capacity to global oil demand was close to four per cent and in this picture, the spare production capacity will be less than two per cent", he said. In the USA, producers added more rigs last week, extending a drilling surge into a 10th month, Baker Hughes Inc. said.

Oil prices, however, have been unusually stable since producers agreed in November to reduce the oversupply that has weighed on prices for more than two years, with both Brent and USA crude locked in $5 ranges.

Iraq's Luaibi is among a slew of speakers at the week-long industry gathering, with the country pledged to cut production by 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) under the deal to trim almost 1.8 million bpd from the market. "Investment must increase at least 20 percent every year to compensate for demand growth", said Birol, a Turkish economist and energy expert who has headed the IEA since 2015.

"The oil market has been rebalancing and the powerful forces of supply and demand have been working", said Dan Yergin, vice chairman of conference organizer IHS Markit and a Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian. Birol said EIA projects global supply to grow by 5.6 million b/d through 2022, with the United States representing about 1.6 million b/d of that growth. The 10 members of the group that pledged to make cuts in Vienna in November implemented 104 percent of those reductions, largely because Saudi Arabia went beyond its target.

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Within OPEC, the IEA said most new supply will come from low-priced Middle Eastern producers, namely Iraq, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, while production in Nigeria, Algeria and Venezuela will decline. Production rose to 9.03 million barrels a day during the same period, the highest since March 2016.

The meeting won't be without simmering tension between US oil producers and OPEC.

"We're witnessing a second wave of shale oil growth", Birol said.

"It is not too late to avert a supply crunch, provided companies start to sanction development work without delay", the IEA said.

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